It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
